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Effects of Global Warming-Induced Severe Weather and Natural Disasters on Developing Nations

By Alex Caspary

1.0  Introduction:

Worldwide, the number of hurricanes that have reached category 4 or 5 has risen 15% over the last 20 years.  The number of major natural disasters has tripled since the 1960’s.[1]  The World Meteorological Organization has suggested a link between global warming and this increase in extreme weather events and according to one study, 35–40% of the worst catastrophes have been climate change related.[2]  Although a substantially higher risk of extreme weather does not necessarily an increase in moderate weather, there is also a clear trend in the increase of moderate rainfall across the world.  Changes in temperature and the frequency and intensity of rainfall have increased floods and draughts.  Severe weather has already affected millions of lives around the world.  [3]

One example, in Figure 1.1 below, shows the increased evaporation and water vapour in Boulder, Colorado.  Excess evaporation, which can be one of the effects of climate change, can be directly linked to heavier rainfall and erosion.  In some places (primarily Africa) deforestation and desertification.  [4]

Figure 1.1:  Increasing Water Vapour at Boulder, Colorado

More recent proof can be seen in Figure 1.2, which shows Cyclone Catarina on March 26th, 2004.  Catarina is unique in being the first ever recorded South Atlantic hurricane. [5]

Figure 1.2:  Image of Cyclone Catarina, first recorded South Atlantic hurricane.

It is clear that the people who would be most affected by these trends are those in “high risk” areas.  Unfortunately, it is in these areas that there is the least availability to insurance and safety measures.  Costs of living on flood-plains is low so people continue to build there.  In nations like Africa, flood plains can sometimes be the only fertile ground for agriculture, which is necessary for any kind of development.  What the world can expect in these regions is a decrease in development and poverty reduction; as well as an increase in “environmental refugees”— people who must migrate from their homes due to a lack of mitigation and prevention initiatives already in place in the developed world.[6]  Recovery from natural disasters can be almost impossible.  This has already been documented in one region of the world:  The emigration from the island nation of Tuvalu, which has an average elevation of one meter above sea level.  Tuvalu actually has an agreement with New Zealand to allow phazed relocation.  [7]

2.0  Possible Mitigation:

The mitigation of global warming is a widely studied and very broad topic, but the goal is essentially this:  to reduce the production of greenhouse gases in order to stabalize the atmosphere.  A worldwide initiative to become more sustainable is already at hand.  Conservation of energy, as well as a search for alternative energy resources is extremely important.  Internationally, goverments have come together to combat global warming.  The most well know and publicized agreement is the Kyoto Protocol—put into place Feburary, 16, 2005.  Nations that agree to this protocol aim to reduce five types of greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, or engage in “emissions trading”.  [8]

Unfortunately for developing nations greenhouse gas emissions tend to increase during economic growth.  To put an emissions cap on these countries would essentially doom their chances at achieving a standard of life comparable to the developed countries.  Critics claim that forcing emission standards on these nations would shift the human cost of global warming from a “general” or planetary one, to one that is forced upon the poorest nations in the world.  [1]

In order to prevent  the decline of development, these countries need support, both technical and financial.  One initiative, proposed by the Kyoto Protocol, is known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CMD).[8]  This is an incentive for industrialized nations, already committed to reducing greenhouse gases, to assist in creating emmission reducing products in developing countries.  The reason for doing this is that it could be more costly to reduce emissions in already established factories, etc., than it would be to do so right from the beginning.  The idea is to build with sustainablity in mind, rather than change set practices.  In the end, the total amount of reduced emissions would be the same. 

Some countries aim to mitigate global warming, but without conforming to set emission reductions.  An example of this is the “Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate”.  Funding goes, not into reduction, but new technologies, ones which can counter-act existing practices, such as “catching” carbon dioxide.  Critics claim that this reactive, not proactive, approach undermines the Kyoto Protocol; however, the U.S., India, Australia, China, Japan and South Korea are all members of this partnership.  This is not the only occasion that some of these countries have acted against the protocol.  In Figure 2.1 below, the United States and Australia are the most notable nations that have signed the agreement but refuse to ratify it. [9]

Figure 2.1:  Participation in the Kyoto Protocol.  Green represent countries who have signed and ratified the treaty, yellow are those that have signed and hope to ratify, and red are those that have signed but refuse to ratify.

3.0  Handling Disasters:

Completely halting the severe weather effects caused by global warming may be impossible.  However, as mentioned earlier, while the threat of catastrophes continues to climb, it seems the areas least able to handle a disaster are the ones at the highest risk.  Poorer people are more susceptable to the effects of hurricanes and flooding for a variety of reasons.  They typically live in substandard housing that is more easily damaged by storms.  Unfortunately there is also a lack of adequate sewer systems and potable water, that increase the likelihood of water-borne diseases.  [1]

Extreme weather is not a new issue, but currently insurance rates are increasing 2-4% per year due to changing weather.  In the UK alone, claims for storm and flood damages have doubled in the past 5 years.[3]  The Munich Re Foundation was set up this year in order to minimize the risks of natural disasters in all forms.  One of their most important initiatives include promoting “micro-insurance” so that poorer areas of the world could afford cover against disaster related losses, including those related to climate change.  [1]

While there is a global focus on technology and sustainability as the main strategy to manage global warming, many believe that coping strategies and risk prevention are more important.  Responsible knowledge-sharing between communities and early warning systems can help avoid sudden migration out of high-risk areas.  As well, educating the public on minimizing risk can be as beneficial for climate-related events as naturally occuring disasters.  [7]

1. Conclusions:

 

The conclusion that many researchers have come to is that developing regions do in fact need to be freed from a “one-size-fits-all” climate change management approach.  It is apparent that policies are being made to benefit already established nations and the real damage being done by global warming will be delivered to the poorest countries of the world.  This problem is much less scientific, and harder to deal with than the concept of climate change.  It is a question of values and class systems that have been around for centuries.  What is known for sure is that global warming is a very real threat, and that working together will be the only way the planet can reach a necessary balance.

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